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For 30 years American and Western European Foreign Policy efforts regarding Iran have been a FAILURE. One would think that in that time one could get it right. We haven't,if history is any indication using the same approach will continue to be a failure. The results of such a failure might well be catastrophic and lead to a conflagration in the next 3 to 10 years.

Why have Western foreign policy efforts had such dismal results.

1. First is the difference in the ways Western and Middle Easterners think. The West tends to think in linear terms. A to B to C to D etc. The west thinks in terms of pragmatic solutions, about the number of tanks, airplanes, ground controlled in other words nuts and bolts. As such the US and Western governments tend to treat with the Iranian government as the source of reaching solutions.

2. The West recognizes that the real locus of power and policy determination in Iran are in the hands of the Mullahs. The religious leaders, say make it so and it gets done. They determine who can run for office etc. The government of Iran exists as an administrative body, to pick up the trash, write the traffic tickets, and keep the power on. Simply put the government does the things that the Mullahs don't want to be bothered with. So what it boils down to is the Mullahs don't want to be bothered with Americans or the West in general, they let the government handle it, while they stand in the background paying close attention to what is going on. The Mullahs basically selected Aminhinjhad as an administrator and for his saber rattling capabilities.

3. Iran is basically afraid of the United States with its vast military and economic power. Which recent history (1954 overthrow of the government, installation of the Shah in power and US support for Saddam during their war with Iraq) gives them good cause. Their motto is the best defence is a good offence. As such they pull the strings to keep the United States off balance in the region. The United States basically had an opportunity right after 911 to reach some kind of cooperative agreement with Iran (they were helpful in Afghanistan). As Iran saw that 911 was a bad act and that world opinion including their own was against International Terrorism (Al Qaeda). The Iranians position is that Ha mas and Hezbolla are freedom fighters (which the US views are terrorist). To date Hamas and Hezbolla have mainly restricted their operations to Israel and Lebanon. The worst thing the US did was include Iran in an AXIS of evil, that act alone alienated Iran. My Mother always told me honey caught more flies then salt.

4. The Mullahs in particular view the US and west as having forgotten about God and thus have lost their way. They see that secularism, materialism and greed have consumed the American and western spirit.

The solution is a radically different approach to the problem. The US needs to think outside of the parameters of conventional institutional thinking whether it be academic or governmental. The approach is to get ones foot in the door with the the Mullahs who are the real determinants of power in Iran. How does one do that with a Theocratic leadership. Ultimately it is very simple you tell the Iranians that they do not have a monopoly on moral authority with God. That the US is a God fearing nation as well, but that God grants man the authority to use electric power as well as being self governing. Once a theocratic approach is established, the nuts and bolts issues can follow. But one needs the foot in the door first. Our current conventional wisdom policies have not done that, and are not likely anytime soon.

PS: As an aside how did this idea of approaching Iran theoratically develop. Simply I was watching the Charlie Rose interview in October with the Foreign Minister of Iran a Mr Mottaki. It struck me that the West talks about nuts and bolt and the Iranians talk about moral issues. It is as if 2 ships were passing in the night, never to meet. So the idea is to be smarter and talk about what they are talking about as a starting place of engagement. You simply have to be smarter than the competition and use that knowledge.