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The advent of WW1 is cited as being a Black Swan. However the situation in Europe in the second decade of the last century was akin to having a child sitting on a keg of gun powder while playing with matches and was recognized as such at the time. The only question was which match would set the powder off..That event eventually morphed into something that became uncontrollable and that was the unknown and unexpected event. Everybody thought it would be a short war..what it became was a earth changing event.

With regards to it being so simple in hindsight and people saying, "I should have seen it coming." The event in hindsight is simply a precipitating event in the arc or trajectory of history. It is not knowable which event will light the fuse, however if one pays attention one can discern that a precipitating event will light a fuse as the time is ripe for one to be lit.

With regards to the precipitating event..a time has to be ripe for an event to set off a string of events. The event itself is inconsequential as any event is as good as another so long as it is in the same sphere or realm of influence. As a political event needs to precipitate a political crisis. However a economic event can set the stage which will lead to a political event which will precipitate a political crisis. One must remember that 911 while being a political event was aimed at the heart of the western financial world..which has then precipitated a financial crisis from which we have never fully recovered.

One has to recognize that for every action there is a reason, a process or mechanism at work. If one pays on going attention to the processs or mechanism one can see where it will all lead as it creats an arc or trajectory.

The arc of history that we are currently in is that the financial times we are in has destabilized the world economy which is leading us further down the path of chaos politically both in the US and world. This weakened state will give the reactionary forces in the world in particular the forces of fundamentalist Islam an opportunity to seize the day and win.

It would be a good bet that within the next 3 years that a precipitating political crisis will develop in the world. I t will be at that time that the true mettle of our beloved Barry will be tested. As I have stated before he does not do well with making real time decisions, as he has not integrated his intellect with his emotions. His stumbling about or hesitancy may very well play into exacerbating the crisis. One might say this is his role to play in the arc or trajectory of history.