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The Republican Field in 2012

There ain't one of them candidates of either Party that is worth a warm bucket of spit. Perhaps we should embark on building the perfect candidate, by taking the best features of each one and incorporating them into one. The point here is that there never has been a flawless, perfect candidate from Washington to BO as each is a human being. We are simply going to have to make do with warts, limitations and all. Maybe the man we choose as a nation will rise to the occasion as some thought BO WAS going to be able to do.

Or just maybe the man we choose will match the times where the best and brightest have all run away. Perhaps the dictates of the Arc Of History will give us the man we deserve, one that is the embodiment of the political and economic system that we have built. Flawed men with feet of clay. Here one is reminded of the last scene in the movie "The Fall Of The Roman Empire" where the various men of power were bidding for the position of being Emperor.

One thing is certain, and that is that this discussion about this Presidential election cycle was as myopic as the rest. For they have failed to see the Arc Of History where we have embarked upon a new post 2008 era where the old power structures are giving way and a new paradigm is being formed. Here one has to be aware of the fact that power abhors a vacume and various combinations of new and old factions are going to be vying for power to fill that vacume. If one looks beyond the American domestic scene we can see that the same fragmentation and attending chaos is on the increase as the status quo of American political and economic hegemony is waning in power. From Europe, to the Arab Spring in the Middle East, Iran, Pakistan/India, China, South and Central America we can see that the winds of change are blowing on a global basis.

NEWS FLASH ...Lions Eat Republicans

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"Here in the Colosseum we call em as we see em." Tom Waits

Jesus said, "When in Washington DC one should be as wise as a Serpent and as meek as a Lamb." To that end the Republican House (Tea Party) have marched the football down field on two different occasions now (Debt Ceiling, Payroll Tax Cut). On both occasions they were stalled out at 4Th and Goal. So what should they have done, gone for the Touchdown on PRINCIPLE or kicked the Field Goal, taking the points and field position for November 2012 election? If one were to make an analysis of strengths and weaknesses, they would come to the conclusion that the Republicans do not control the Senate nor the White House, therefore the House alone does not have the offensive line to push the ball over the goal. Second the House Tea Party should realize that the American people understand the position that the Republicans in the House are in, and that is one where they have limited ability to rectify deficit spending and budget issues Thus the Republican House should have put PRINCIPLE aside for the moment and gone for the points in order to WIN THE GAME in November of 2012. Being able to implement the Tea Party agenda is the goal and NOT THEIR PRINCIPLES. So what has the House Tea Party done on two different occasions on 4Th and Goal, but stuck to principle and fumbled the football of public opinion away which is tantamount to the Christians being fed to the Lions. Being a meal for the Lions is not what the Tea Party members of House were sent to Washington DC to do. Strike two on the Tea Party, as they are now risking defeat in the 2012 elections by a fed up American electorate.

The Whisperings

Adam Smith talked about an "Unseen Hand" Maynard Keynes about "Animal Spirits. " How does one quantify an essentially organic process known as the Financial Markets? One can see the Financial Markets as a collective aggregate that is based upon emotion rather than rationality. Here one would state that there is only a presumption or illusion of control over events as the pendulum usually swings in short arcs. In times of crisis or stress the swing become ever greater as fear becomes the over riding sentiment.

What we have seen since the day that SP downgraded US Debt from AAA is a loss of confidence in the American and European political process. Put that date down as a watershed date in the history of Financial Markets as they have essentially lost patience with the political;process and are now reacting with a fear that has risen to heights not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.The Markets telegraph that message with a decline every time a politician comes on the Tellie and says something that the Markets do not like. The Financial Markets showing this dislike/fear have pushed the Banking, Bond and Equity metrics towards a cataclysm which has eventually caught the European politicians attention. Thus the reaction we have seen is that the markets are dictating to the political process that hard choices are going to have to be made. To this end we have seen several interim governments established in Europe which are NOT elected but appointed (Greece, Italy) and a Conservative victory in the Spanish election. .

With regards to Germany one has mentioned a return of the Sturmabteilung which is a reference to the German Brown Shirts of the 1930's. This reference is an abstraction of the fact that Germany as the largest and strongest European economy is dictating that an iron willed fiscal policy of austerity be instituted in the indebted Euro zone nations; before they acquiesce to bailing them out. To this end the Germans are advocating that Fiscal Union be implemented which is a loss of sovereign determinism in favor of Euro eg German hegemony. In other words what the Germans could not accomplish in WW2 they are succeeding with, with the use of monetary and fiscal policy which also can be called the Sturmabteilung. .

With regards to the United States the election of a Republican House of Representatives has mollified the Financial Markets until the 2012 election. The Financial Markets have only expected limited success in bringing the Budget deficit and Sovereign debt under control. The Financial Markets in other words are sanguine with the current state of dysfunction in the US government. However by the beginning of the summer of 2012 the markets are going to be looking forward to the likely outcome of the election and will begin to telegraph that sentiment in the financial metrics. If it looks like a favorable Republican outcome the markets will react positively. If it looks like a split decision with the Republicans in control of the Congress and a return of Barrack Obama as President the following question, of can we afford 4 more years of dysfunctional government and gridlock will come to the forefront and will be answered in those metrics. The answer that Financial Markets will telegraph is that the US can not afford to put off a reconciliation of its deficit and debt problems another 4 years. At that time a nearly 20T USD debt along with the other unfunded liabilities will have sunk the US like the Titanic under a mountain of debt. As stated before Financial Markets do not wait until the last Shekel or Dollar has been spent before reacting thus one can expect a relatively quick response to the outcome of the 2012 election.

If the Republicans do gain control of the government and institute a course of action that the Financial Markets deem as acceptable the US economy will muddle along with slow to middling growth until those policies start to bear fruit. If the Republicans fail to act in an acceptable manner of deficit and debt reduction there will be a negative reaction by the Financial markets and a severe crisis will result as the Financial Markets will have given up any hope of a reconciliation by the political process.

As of late there have been several Liberal commentators stating that the 2012 election might not be the point of resolution of the direction that the US is going to be moving in with regards to either being a Social Democracy or returning to its more historical roots of self reliance. This argument is specious in the following, time is no longer on the side of the political process to resolve the problem. The problem has been kicked down the road for decades and has grown so large that it will overwhelm the financial and political processes if it remains unresolved for much longer.

The Dictatorship Of The Financial Markets

Sometimes one begins to feel like the Ghost of Christmas Future in Charles Dickens "A Christmas Carol." Pointing the bony finger at what will transpire in the future. May one suggest Alice Rivlan former CBO Director under Clinton as a guest. She might be able to address the peril that the American republic is facing.

In Europe, both Greece and Italy have had interim or technocratic governments appointed. .Since these new governments were not elected this amounts to a coup that the financial markets have dictated in order to maintain economic and even civil stability. Call it what you want but this is totalitarianism. Like the Roman republic once that bridge is crossed, when if ever is the republic restored? As the European Sovereign Debt crisis further spreads across Europe how many more interim governments will be established?

As for the US the following was posted to your Comment Board.on 11/15/11

" It was on this very Charlie Rose program some years back that Gore Vidal said, "That the United States became a National Security State in 1948." With the advent of nuclear weapons and the dreadful consequences of nuclear war, national security trumped all. Throw in the reality that the US was the richest and most powerful nation the world had ever seen and the stage was set for the corruption of the system. With all the varied interests, all jockeying for position and power the game of politics has become all consuming. As for the epiphany, it is when the game of politics becomes more important than governing itself that the system begins to fail. Unfortunately in ones opinion it is only when all the money and power disappears that the game stops as everybody will be too busy trying to survive." TABS

Alice Rivlan said this morning (11/16) on CNBC that a broken Congress appointed a Super Committee to remedy the problem of budget cuts to decease spending. If the Super Committee proves to be broken as well, then she fears for the Republic. Thus the question is when will the FINANCIAL MARKETS dictate that an interim government be appointed in the US to maintain economic and even civil order?

It is quite ironic Mr Rose that several weeks ago one had come to the conclusion that the entity known as the Global Financial Market wants the problem of European and eventually US sovereign debt solved and it doesn't care how it gets done. What the financial markets care about is stability and order. One thing is certain and that is that Progressive era is coming to a close, sunk under a Titanic mountain of debt.

E-mail To Hannity

As the Republican field of Presidential candidates begins to narrow and become more clearly defined it appears that Newt Gingrich is becoming the the most viable candidate in the Republican field.

Let us discuss Mitt Romney for a moment, the question one has continually posed is WHY DOES MITT WANT TO BE PRESIDENT. We don't need a superficial for the media spin answer, but one from the heart.It is for that reason one has long called Mitt, "Romney Robot" after the 60's TV show Lost In Space, for his plasticity and lack of authenticity. Thus one would consider Romney to be an Obama lite.

Now back to the point of this e-mail. Newt Gingrich needs a GOOD campaign slogan with a "hook" in it that will resonate with the American people. That slogan is

Elect Gingrich for..."COMMON SENSE SOLUTIONS FOR AMERICA"

If one recalls "Common Sense" was the pamphlet that Thomas Paine wrote on the eve of the American Revolution. Thus this slogan not only hark ens back to American history and patriotism but it also alludes to clearing away all the myopic ineptness that is coming out of the White House and Washington. Replacing it with a President who can return American governance to pragmatic and practical solutions aka COMMON SENSE. This slogan will strike a nerve and ring like a bell with the American people.

One would hope that your organization would pass this onto Newt Gingrich for his consideration. One would also hope that you would make the proper attribution of where this slogan came from.

The Entity

There are organizations in the world whose collective aggregate amounts to an entity whose sentiment is a force in the world. There are some people who are consciencily atuned to that sentiment and can speak to that sentiment.

Obama Is A Lame Duck

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Unless some Black Swan event takes place one can start writing the Barrack Obama political obituary. With the failure of previous economic plans President Obama's Jobs plan was the last roll of the political dice. In that speech he had to show a new face that was more in line with economic realities than his previous ideological stance of greater government is the solution to our problems

However true to form President Obama stuck to his personal and political belief system and delivered more of the same. The results of this speech has been a further dip in the Polls which means that Americans have heard this rhetorical story before and are tuning out President Obama. The disdain is even spreading to the once loyal acolytes of the financial media when they say, "You should hear what is said off camera about about President Obama, it is complete disdain for the President. Obama is the blame, is all we hear." Thus Main Street America but more importantly those who make America move have lost faith with this President to the extent that it looks like a redux of Jimmy Carter on steroids. President Obama's political power is fading fast. This failing light of power is particularly high lighted by the revelations of the White House role in arranging the $500M Solyndra loan guarantees and now the effort of trying to get General Shelton to amend Congressional testimony. Both of these potential burgeoning scandals are further evidence of a wane in Presidential power.

President Obama has realized that the Jobs Plan is his last roll of the political dice before the 2012 election and that things are not going well. That he has lost touch with the American people long ago and now people are fed up with listening to more of his preening elocution. This why we see an EVER MORE desperate and shrill Barrack Obama trying to claw back the support he once enjoyed. However this is destined to fall on deaf ears as President Obama is not capable of delivering something new as he is wedded to his personal and political views.

A Retort

One does not engage in idealistic wishfull thinking nor in emotion or suppostion but the cold hard facts of history. One presumes you are old enough to remember the late 70's and 1980's. If you recall that by the early 1980's the Japanese were eating Americas lunch economically, by beating us at our own game. In the mid to late 1980's American corporations put themselves on a path that by the 1990's paid off with economic prosperity. This had nothing to do with taxes or and increased role of government. So you may ask what caused this great surge in economic activity. It is really very simple American corporations cleaned out the dead wood or put another way the bureaucracy of Middle managment. Corporations became concerned with PRODUCTIVITY and not maintaining a cumbersome bureaucratic structure. In other words US corporations became lean and mean in order to remain competitive in a now Global economy.

The US government never got the message, and now it is in their face on a daily basis with the unstability of the financial markets and a morbund economy. For as stated previousily the US government is exacting a huge amount of capital from the system to sustain itself and it has grown so large and unwieldly that it is impeding not only economic growth but sustainability over the long run. What worked for US corporations in the late 1980's will have to be implemented by the not only the US governemtn but the governments of the EU, because if it doesn't the system will become so unwieldly that it will casue the system to implode upon itself. We have reached that tipping point and the choice is ours to make.

Gilligan In Charge

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"The only fear and panic I see is from those on the fringe Right. Their fears are stoked 24x7 by Fox News. Everyone else sees to be able to go about their business as usual"...Corgi

Spoken like a true person from the Left. This mindset as well as more vitriolic voices from the fringes is what we get from the Progressive /Liberal Party members. It for accuracies sake is the mirror image of what the Conservatives feed us.

However there is a major flaw in this thinking. It is not just the "fringe Right" that has their panties in a bunch, egged on by the Right Wing media it is also the GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS that have had ENOUGH.

There is a reason why unemployment has continued above 9%

There is a reason why Economic Growth in the USA is at 1%

There is a reason why the Stock Market is acting like a YO YO

There is a reason why Gold is at $1878 an Oz

There is a reason why Business is sitting on cash and profits

That reason is really very very simple. BUSINESS HAS NO CONFIDENCE in either the Euro Trash leaders NOR THE BARRACK OBAMA ADMINSITRATION. Business and Global Markets look at the BO Admin and see the USS MINNOW with NO BODY at the helm during the storm. Business looks at Barrack Obama as being a Gilligan in charge of the ship who has been found out to be out of touch with the American people, and to have NO REAL LEADERSHIP SKILLS. What all Barrack Obama's supporters thought were qualities of being SOMBER, THOUGHTFULL and DELIBRATE have all turned out to be is feet of clay. The man has NO INNER FORTITUDE of a Harry Truman who loudly proclaimed "THE BUCK STOPS HERE." Which plainly means that Harry Truman makes the decisions as it is his RESPONSIBILITY.

No one expected a Rose Garden from Barrrack Obama except for his initial supporters. Barrack Obama is not God who can wave a magic wand and everything will be fixed. However what we can expect is LEADERSHIP and that Barrack Obama at least shows up in person instead of just voting PRESENT. It is that vote of being Present that so disconcerts the business community. For who is it that is at the helm of Minnow again, the President or a Gilligan who is present but not accounted for. So what we are seeing in all this turmoil is a direct result of a Gilligan being the CIC in the WH and not someone who has some inner fortitude.

Watching The Tiger

One has become quiet and watchful since the SP Downgrade of US debt as one would be if one suddenly found oneself in a room with a Bengal Tiger who had a penchant for eating men. The Financial Markets since the downgrade have become IRRATIONAL, with men filled with fear and panic scurrying here and there and in every direction not knowing in which direction to go. Chaos has won as Congress went on vacation, the President to play Golf, the Euro leaders to talk endlessly and Bernanke to find that his bag of tricks has been depleted of tools in which to fix Humpty Dumpty. There has been no real crisis of the sky falling but the perception that there is no one who is responsible nor competent minding the helm of a world economy, headed for that iceberg that lies dead ahead. There has been a crisis of confidence in the leadership of the worlds economies. The world financial markets had in fact gotten to the point of fear and panic where all it would have taken is one good shove to pushed it over the edge into oblivion (week of 8/19) . Where there would have been no backstopping nor calming of the markets.

One has previously postulated that the Great American Post War Prosperity Boom ended in 2008 when President GW Bush went on TV to tell the American people that America was in a financial crisis (btw this was the event that burst Americans illusion that we were a rich nation that could afford every thing without consequence, and that awakening led to the Tea Party). That was the day that America began a convulsive transformation to a new era, that the US has gone through what amounts to the calm period in the eye of a hurricane and that rough waters lie ahead (it is all one big storm since 2008). Now the question is, is this current financial upheaval just a precursor event to a financial Main Event crisis or is this the kind of volatility that we can expect going forward as financial systems become ever more unstable due to excessive Sovereign Debt loads? That this continued financial turbulence will ultimately lead to a Main Event crisis of confidence. Remember one has long said that the crisis of confidence would come long before the last USD was spent, and all it would take is for some Finance Minister to one day wake up and say,"I want out of US Treasuries while the getting is good." That in affect is what has just happened with the Euro debt and banks, the Investors wanted OUT.

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